Trends to Watch: Ocean & Air Cargo Weekly Updates

Ocean – Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB)

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Shipments from Asia remain strong, thanks to extra loading capacity added to handle the recent cargo rush. However, with healthy inventory levels reported, demand may soften in the coming weeks. Issues like blank sailings, port congestion, and delays around the Cape of Good Hope (COGH) could further impact schedules.  

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On a positive note, water levels at Gatun Lake have recovered, easing weight restrictions at the Panama Canal. Carriers are planning blank sailings around the Golden Week holiday, which will affect shipments during Weeks 38 to 41.

Rates: The September 1 General Rate Increase (GRI) was withdrawn, and end-of-August rates are extended.
Fixed Rates: Discussions about Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) remain the same for now.

Ocean – Far East Westbound (FEWB)

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Demand is slowing, with more capacity available in September. Floating rates have dropped but are still higher than early 2024 levels. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell by 12% in Week 36, marking the biggest change of the year.  

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Equipment shortages are improving, but some ports still face challenges with specific containers, especially 20’GP and 45’HC.

Ocean – Trans-Atlantic Westbound (TAWB)

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There’s a potential work stoppage looming at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, as contracts are set to expire on September 30th. Carriers are maintaining high usage on Northern European and Mediterranean services, leading to higher rates in September and an expected PSS in October.  

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Some regions, like South and East Germany, continue to struggle with equipment shortages, so it’s advisable to book shipments 2-3 weeks in advance.

Air – Global

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Global air cargo tonnage rebounded by +5% in Week 34, driven by a strong +11% recovery from the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan, after Typhoon Ampil.  

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The Asia-Pacific recovery made up 40% of the global increase, with contributions from South Korea, mainland China, and Hong Kong.  
Year-on-year, global air cargo tonnage grew by +9%, with major gains from the Asia-Pacific (+11%) and the Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +10%).

Rates: Average global air cargo rates remained stable at $2.51 per kilo, up +12% from last year.  
Rates increased significantly from MESA and the Asia-Pacific, while rates from Europe and North America decreased slightly. Bangladesh and MESA spot rates to Europe saw the highest increases, with Bangladesh rates reaching $5.02 per kilo, up +161% year-on-year.

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